← Ascent Boston

Fire RileTier 1

at Ascent Boston

decks
141 (52.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
1143 580-493-70
overall winrate
53.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.3% avg ELO +0.7 per match
expected value
54.2% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.8% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1338 · median 1329 · range 1040–1736 (141 pilots with an ELO rating)
971 Q1 1196 Q3 1408 1750
28% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 15% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Fire Suzaku 11.5% 120 72-47-1 60.4% 60.1% 61.4% +3.8
Wind Shadowstrike 9.3% 124 63-50-11 55.2% 55.1% 55.4% +1.8
Fire Crux Mage 7.1% 94 46-41-7 52.7% 52.6% 48.6% -0.5
Fire Exia 5.9% 87 38-42-7 47.7% 47.8% 56.3% +2.1
Fire Luxem Assassin 5.9% 81 34-43-4 44.4% 44.7% 46.8% -1.1
Fire Aggro 5.2% 66 35-30-1 53.8% 53.6% 50.8% +0.3
Fire Oblation 5.2% 63 33-26-4 55.6% 55.2% 52.2% +0.8
Wind Allies 4.5% 53 30-17-6 62.3% 61.4% 58.7% +3.0
Wind Seiryuu 3.7% 47 27-18-2 59.6% 58.8% 49.5% -0.2
Wind Wakeup Combo 3.3% 34 18-14-2 55.9% 55.3% 50.0% +0.0
Fire Crux Lorraine 2.6% 27 14-11-2 55.6% 54.8% 53.5% +1.3
Fire Suited 2.6% 36 16-19-1 45.8% 46.2% 46.3% -1.3
Fire Umbra Guardian 2.6% 30 15-14-1 51.7% 51.5% 48.7% -0.5
Fire Firebloom Burn 2.2% 25 16-9-0 64.0% 62.1% 57.2% +2.7
Horse and Taxes 2.2% 46 8-36-2 19.6% 22.0% 20.4% -10.3
Water Allies 2.2% 31 11-19-1 37.1% 38.6% 38.4% -4.2
Water Fractal 2.2% 26 14-11-1 55.8% 55.0% 61.4% +4.2
Water Genbu 2.2% 24 10-12-2 45.8% 46.4% 37.5% -4.7
Fire Umbra Ranger 1.9% 15 10-5-0 66.7% 63.2% 56.0% +2.4
Water Astra Ranger 1.5% 12 12-0-0 100.0% 87.5% 83.1% +14.1
Wind Astra Cleric 1.1% 15 9-4-2 66.7% 63.2% 51.9% +0.8
Water Aetherwing 0.7% 11 6-5-0 54.5% 53.3% 56.7% +2.9
Water Crux Mage 0.7% 11 6-5-0 54.5% 53.3% 53.3% +1.4
Water Umbra Guardian 0.7% 8 4-4-0 50.0% 50.0% 44.1% -2.8
Wind Arcane 0.7% 4 3-1-0 75.0% 62.5% 56.6% +4.2
Fire Aetherwing 0.4% 3 1-2-0 33.3% 42.9% 47.1% -2.2
Fire Exia Jin 0.4% 3 2-0-1 83.3% 64.3% 66.6% +12.4
Fire Kongming 0.4% 6 4-2-0 66.7% 60.0% 60.7% +5.7
Fire Tera Cleric 0.4% 4 1-0-3 62.5% 56.2% 53.2% +2.0
Water Exia Jin 0.4% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 57.6% +12.2
Water Neos 0.4% 6 1-0-5 58.3% 55.0% 45.6% -2.4
Water Tera Cleric 0.4% 3 3-0-0 100.0% 71.4% 60.9% +8.1
Water Umbra Ciel 0.4% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 67.3% +16.6
Wind Beast 0.4% 6 4-1-1 75.0% 65.0% 60.8% +5.7
Wind Ciel 0.4% 8 5-3-0 62.5% 58.3% 48.3% -0.8
Wind Luxem Zander 0.4% 5 2-1-2 60.0% 55.6% 58.5% +4.9
Wind Neos 0.4% 4 3-0-1 87.5% 68.8% 56.6% +4.2
Wind Silvie 0.4% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 49.6% -0.4
Decklists · 141 from this event

The 141 public Fire Rile decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 350 mirror matches (24 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 70 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).

Winners more often ran: Fast Cure, Fluffy Shopkeep, Regal Inquisition. Losers more often ran: Nullifying Mirror, Hasty Messenger, The Looking Glass.

↑ Played more by winners
Fast Cure
Fast Cure
Winning decks ran 1.7 copies on average, losing decks 1.4.
Of 350 mirrors: the winner ran more in 116, the loser ran more in 80, both ran the same in 154.
Fluffy Shopkeep
Fluffy Shopkeep
Winning decks ran 1.2 copies on average, losing decks 1.0.
Of 350 mirrors: the winner ran more in 110, the loser ran more in 76, both ran the same in 164.
Regal Inquisition
Regal Inquisition
Winning decks ran 2.0 copies on average, losing decks 1.9.
Of 350 mirrors: the winner ran more in 139, the loser ran more in 114, both ran the same in 97.
Grand Crusader's Ring
Grand Crusader's Ring
Winning decks ran 0.6 copies on average, losing decks 0.5.
Of 350 mirrors: the winner ran more in 96, the loser ran more in 72, both ran the same in 182.
Censer of Restful Peace
Censer of Restful Peace
Winning decks ran 0.3 copies on average, losing decks 0.2.
Of 350 mirrors: the winner ran more in 72, the loser ran more in 49, both ran the same in 229.
Dungeon Guide
Dungeon Guide
Winning decks ran 3.3 copies on average, losing decks 3.1.
Of 350 mirrors: the winner ran more in 69, the loser ran more in 47, both ran the same in 234.
↓ Played more by losers
Nullifying Mirror
Nullifying Mirror
Losing decks ran 0.6 copies on average, winning decks 0.5.
Of 350 mirrors: the loser ran more in 106, the winner ran more in 69, both ran the same in 175.
Hasty Messenger
Hasty Messenger
Losing decks ran 1.6 copies on average, winning decks 1.3.
Of 350 mirrors: the loser ran more in 110, the winner ran more in 73, both ran the same in 167.
The Looking Glass
The Looking Glass
Losing decks ran 0.4 copies on average, winning decks 0.3.
Of 350 mirrors: the loser ran more in 90, the winner ran more in 65, both ran the same in 195.
Blazing Throw
Blazing Throw
Losing decks ran 0.7 copies on average, winning decks 0.5.
Of 350 mirrors: the loser ran more in 64, the winner ran more in 43, both ran the same in 243.
Vermilion Decree
Vermilion Decree
Losing decks ran 0.8 copies on average, winning decks 0.6.
Of 350 mirrors: the loser ran more in 62, the winner ran more in 42, both ran the same in 246.
Heated Vengeance
Heated Vengeance
Losing decks ran 0.6 copies on average, winning decks 0.4.
Of 350 mirrors: the loser ran more in 56, the winner ran more in 36, both ran the same in 258.
Show all 327 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 307 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Nullifying Mirror -0.11 69 106 102
Hasty Messenger -0.11 73 110 37
Fast Cure +0.10 116 80 36
Fluffy Shopkeep +0.10 110 76 22
Dilu, Auspicious Charger +0.08 36 8 12
Beastsoul Visage +0.08 36 8 12
Beseech the Winds +0.08 36 8 12
Cinder Geyser +0.08 36 8 12
Fractal of Sparks +0.08 36 8 12
Brisk Windtrotter +0.08 36 8 12
Dream Fairy +0.08 36 8 12
Wind Resonance Bauble +0.07 42 16 12
Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion +0.07 40 14 12
Volda, Smolder's Spite +0.07 36 10 10
Stifling Trap +0.07 36 10 10
Regal Inquisition +0.07 139 114 52
The Looking Glass -0.07 65 90 48
Vanitas, Obliviate Schemer +0.07 36 11 12
Vanitas, Convergent Ruin +0.07 36 11 12
Searing Rebuke +0.07 36 11 12
Vanitas, Dominus Rex +0.07 36 11 12
Grand Crusader's Ring +0.07 96 72 110
Censer of Restful Peace +0.07 72 49 27
Dungeon Guide +0.06 69 47 219
Water Resonance Bauble +0.06 32 10 11
Safeguard Amulet +0.06 97 76 85
Incapacitate +0.06 93 72 16
Blazing Throw -0.06 43 64 11
Vermilion Decree -0.06 42 62 10
Heated Vengeance -0.06 36 56 11
Sword of Seeking -0.06 57 77 24
Staggering Strike -0.05 41 60 7
Heavenly Guide +0.05 67 49 5
Stalwart Shieldmate -0.05 75 93 43
Inert Sword -0.05 57 75 34
Spark Alight -0.05 37 55 3
Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin -0.05 25 42 2
Vengeful Paramour -0.05 42 59 13
Embercrypt Burn +0.05 68 52 21
Reduce to Ash -0.04 119 134 72
Fire Resonance Bauble +0.04 56 41 22
Spirit Blade: Ascension -0.04 46 61 5
Varuckan Acolyte +0.04 56 41 12
Relentless Outburst +0.04 38 24 2
Smoke Bombs +0.04 82 68 56
Annul Spell -0.04 53 67 7
Planted Explosive +0.04 42 29 4
Cremation Ritual -0.04 93 106 12
Drawn Blade -0.04 65 78 39
Lorraine, Wandering Warrior -0.04 68 81 42
Restorative Flame -0.04 46 59 7
Carter, Synthetic Reaper -0.04 41 54 5
Lorraine, Blademaster -0.03 46 58 16
Impact Hammer +0.03 65 53 30
Savage Sunder +0.03 25 13 2
Sadi, Blood Harvester +0.03 20 9 0
Tariff Ring +0.03 90 79 136
Flame Sweep -0.03 90 101 23
Prismatic Edge -0.03 45 56 8
Guo Jia, Chosen Disciple -0.03 33 44 8
Searing Truth -0.03 33 44 8
Fabled Ruby Fatestone -0.03 33 44 8
Spirelle, Schwartz Queen -0.03 26 37 1
Three of Hearts -0.03 43 54 7
Peppered Chef -0.03 36 47 9
Proof of Life +0.03 38 28 4
Excalibur, Cleansing Light +0.03 45 35 1
Crystallized Destiny -0.03 98 108 59
Thieving Cut +0.03 45 35 1
Crux Sight -0.03 62 72 11
Blazing Bowman -0.03 7 17 0
Flamewreath Call -0.03 29 39 6
Fiery Interference +0.03 87 77 24
Consumption Ring -0.03 37 47 4
Orb of Sealing -0.03 25 35 1
Insignia of the Corhazi +0.03 43 34 4
Luxera's Map +0.03 42 33 2
Zander, Deft Executor +0.03 43 34 4
Enrage +0.03 42 33 4
Gleaming Cut +0.03 43 34 4
Evercurrent Raider -0.03 117 126 54
Striking Illuminance +0.03 39 30 3
Luxem Sight +0.03 43 34 4
Lightweaver's Assault +0.03 43 34 4
Zander, Blinding Steel +0.03 43 34 4
Zander, Prepared Scout +0.03 43 34 4
Mend Flesh +0.03 44 35 2
Ghosts of Pendragon -0.03 67 76 32
Incendiary Shot -0.03 7 16 0
Clarent, Reimagined -0.03 34 43 5
Clarent, Sword of Peace -0.03 36 45 6
Sovereign Sanctuary +0.03 35 26 2
Shatter the Brittle -0.03 32 41 5
Guo Jia, Blessed Scion -0.03 32 41 7
Thunderclap -0.03 8 17 2
Sable Remnant -0.03 4 13 0
Uncover the Plot +0.02 43 35 3
Jin, Zealous Maverick +0.02 42 34 5
Jin, Fate Defiant +0.02 42 34 5
Backup Charger -0.02 78 86 118
Shuang Ji of Sacrifice +0.02 42 34 5
Berserker Plate +0.02 42 34 5
Jin, Undying Resolve +0.02 42 34 5
Expose Darkness -0.02 9 17 0
Ciel, Mirage's Grave -0.02 35 43 6
Manxome Armoire -0.02 35 43 6
Ciel, Loyal Valet -0.02 35 43 6
Ciel, Omenbringer -0.02 35 43 6
Morgan, Soul Guide -0.02 11 19 0
Incinerated Templar -0.02 7 15 0
Flame-Rune Swordsman -0.02 13 21 0
Extorting Blackjack -0.02 25 33 0
Orb of Hubris +0.02 14 6 0
Exploit Vulnerability +0.02 20 13 0
Bloodshroud Temper +0.02 27 20 3
Baleful Oblation -0.02 26 33 1
Grande Sonnerie -0.02 43 50 7
Advent of the Stormcaller -0.02 26 33 1
Suzaku's Command -0.02 19 26 2
Library Witch -0.02 23 30 0
Disintegrate +0.02 17 10 0
Chalice of Blood +0.02 82 76 47
Votive Runeblade -0.02 42 48 9
Incarnate Majesty -0.02 43 49 4
Hone by Fire -0.02 12 18 0
Reckoning's Wake -0.02 18 24 1
Grim Pastiche -0.02 29 35 1
Ashwound Shot -0.01 5 10 0
Lorraine, Crux Knight -0.01 42 47 8
Heavy Swing +0.01 15 10 1
Lamentation's Toll +0.01 12 7 0
Devouring Malice -0.01 8 13 0
Unyielding Wraithguard -0.01 32 37 1
Merlin, Kingslayer -0.01 44 49 7
Merlin, Memory Thief -0.01 44 49 7
The Majestic Spirit -0.01 43 48 5
Fireball -0.01 44 49 7
Arthur, Young Heir -0.01 1 6 0
Umbral Tithe -0.01 5 10 1
Diana, Keen Huntress -0.01 5 10 1
Deploy Gunshield -0.01 5 10 1
Punishing Cartridge -0.01 5 10 1
Shadow's Twin -0.01 5 10 1
Diana, Duskstalker -0.01 5 10 1
Tasershot -0.01 5 10 1
Diana, Deadly Duelist -0.01 5 10 1
Reposition -0.01 4 9 0
Manaflare Barrage -0.01 4 9 0
Fiery Momentum -0.01 8 13 0
Mindbreak Bullet -0.01 1 6 0
Backstep -0.01 0 5 0
Liminal Guide +0.01 10 6 334
Nullifying Lantern -0.01 79 83 43
Hemorrhaging Rend -0.01 18 22 1
Rending Flames +0.01 87 83 10
Spurn to Ash -0.01 9 13 0
Smoke Out -0.01 12 16 0
Crimson Prescience +0.01 28 24 1
Art of War -0.01 14 18 0
Portentous Tanggu -0.01 63 67 25
Fragmented Spirit of Fire -0.01 36 40 3
Sudden Steel -0.01 20 24 1
Profane Bindings -0.01 13 17 0
Ghastly Corrosion -0.01 2 6 0
Executioner's Spear -0.01 3 7 0
Annihilation -0.01 3 7 0
Nightmare Coil -0.01 6 10 0
Tempered Steel -0.01 7 11 0
Crossroads Specter -0.01 3 7 0
Alkahest -0.01 0 4 0
Tether in Flames +0.01 6 2 0
Undying Dreams +0.01 7 4 339
Spirit of Serene Fire +0.01 80 77 61
Penetrator Round -0.01 7 10 1
Polkhawk, Boisterous Riot -0.01 5 8 0
Quickdraw Piercer -0.01 5 8 0
Automaton Bomber -0.01 5 8 0
Arondight, Azure Blade +0.01 23 20 2
Ranger Strides -0.01 5 8 0
Tinderflare Pivot -0.01 5 8 0
Bombard Flarecannon -0.01 5 8 0
Volatile Fusilier -0.01 5 8 0
Mad Hatter, Morose Heritor -0.01 5 8 0
Vanish from Sight -0.01 18 21 0
Repelling Palmblast -0.01 2 5 0
Sword of Shadows -0.01 35 38 8
Spirit Blade: Infusion -0.01 2 5 0
Nocturne's Oblivion -0.01 17 20 1
Unbroken Mustang -0.01 11 14 0
Malevolent Vow -0.01 0 3 0
Bauble of Abundance -0.01 5 8 1
Condemned Trinket +0.01 10 7 0
Flamme Sorcel +0.01 10 7 0
Soutirer Vortex +0.01 10 7 0
Beguiling Coup +0.01 10 7 0
Excalibur, Reflected Edge -0.01 5 8 0
Exia Sight -0.01 10 13 0
Enchanted Fete -0.01 6 9 0
Regenerate -0.01 6 9 0
Savage Attack +0.01 6 3 0
Blastshot Pump -0.01 1 4 0
Curse Amplification -0.01 0 3 0
Varuck, Smoldering Spire +0.01 4 1 0
Diablerie -0.01 0 3 0
Dominating Strike -0.01 0 3 0
Zephyr -0.01 0 3 0
Enchaining Gale -0.01 0 3 0
Scatter Essence -0.01 0 3 0
Vainglory Retribution -0.01 0 3 0
Poisonous Apple +0.01 3 0 0
Tome of Ignorance +0.01 3 0 0
Kongming, Fel Eidolon +0.01 3 0 0
Immaterial Dissolution +0.01 3 0 0
Fan of Seven Debts +0.01 3 0 0
Ignite Fate +0.01 3 0 0
Solar Providence +0.01 3 0 0
Da Qiao, Cinderbinder +0.01 3 0 0
Kongming, Ascetic Vice +0.01 3 0 0
Rapid Combustion +0.01 3 0 0
Everflame Staff +0.01 3 0 0
Resolute Stand +0.01 128 126 58
Viridian Protective Trinket -0.01 49 51 10
Tabula of Salvage +0.01 10 8 0
Quicksilver Grail -0.01 27 29 2
Spirit of Fire -0.01 80 82 96
Ignis Deus -0.01 8 10 0
Meltdown -0.01 6 8 0
Butler's Augury +0.01 2 0 0
Blighted Jewel +0.01 2 0 0
Royal Ordinance +0.01 2 0 0
Suspicious Concoction +0.01 2 0 0
Azure Protective Trinket -0.01 0 2 0
Flash Grenade -0.01 4 6 0
Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper -0.01 4 6 0
Dazzling Courtesan -0.01 1 3 0
Clumsy Apprentice -0.01 1 3 0
Firetongue -0.01 4 6 0
Siphoning Fractal -0.01 3 5 0
Coiled Fatestone -0.01 0 2 0
Coronation Ceremony -0.01 7 9 0
Exorcise Curses +0.01 6 4 0
Umbra Sight +0.01 6 4 0
Warrior's Longsword -0.01 3 5 0
Surreptitious Scheme +0.01 13 11 0
Forgelight Blade -0.01 3 5 0
Lurid Dreaming -0.01 2 4 0
Sinister Mindreaver -0.01 6 8 0
Sword Saint's Vow -0.01 5 7 0
Innervate Fury -0.01 5 7 0
Exsanguinating Wallop +0.01 8 6 0
Conflagrative Trounce -0.01 1 3 0
Ombreux Chevalier -0.01 2 4 0
Slip Away -0.01 6 8 1
Smashing Force -0.01 0 2 0
Seeker's Rifle -0.01 2 4 1
False Step -0.01 2 4 1
Veteran Blazebearer -0.01 2 4 0
Purge in Flames -0.01 0 2 0
Chilling Touch -0.01 0 2 0
Demon's Aim -0.01 0 2 0
Blazing Lunge -0.01 1 3 0
Rile the Abyss -0.00 3 4 343
Under Fire -0.00 46 47 5
Intensified Pyre +0.00 28 27 2
Creative Shock -0.00 9 10 331
Turbo Charge +0.00 67 66 23
Carnwennan, Shrouded Edge -0.00 27 28 2
Spirit Blade: Ensoul -0.00 43 44 3
Spellward Scepter -0.00 63 64 7
Ingress of Sanguine Ire -0.00 4 5 0
Demolition -0.00 56 57 4
Grande Aiguille -0.00 11 12 0
Immolation Trap +0.00 13 12 0
Corhazi Lightblade +0.00 2 1 0
March Hare, Mottled Host +0.00 4 3 0
Banner Knight -0.00 7 8 0
Lorraine, Spirit Ruler -0.00 4 5 0
Devastating Blow -0.00 14 15 1
Guo Jia, Heaven's Favored -0.00 11 12 1
Duplicitous Replication -0.00 18 19 0
Obsequious Blow +0.00 4 3 0
Lingering Banshee +0.00 4 3 0
Relentless Hexchaser +0.00 4 3 0
Bauble of Scarcity -0.00 3 4 0
Blade of Creation -0.00 2 3 0
Hub of Innovation -0.00 2 3 0
Alchemical Scripture -0.00 2 3 0
Atmos Armor Type-Ares -0.00 2 3 0
Assassin's Mantle +0.00 5 4 0
Exalted Dorumegian Throne -0.00 2 3 0
Tonoris, Might of Humanity -0.00 2 3 0
Tonoris, Genesis Aegis -0.00 2 3 0
Tonoris, Lone Mercenary -0.00 2 3 0
Wayfinder's Map -0.00 2 3 0
Archon Broadsword -0.00 2 3 0
Hulao Gate, Sun's Ascent -0.00 2 3 0
Clockwork Amalgam -0.00 2 3 0
Mad Tea Party -0.00 2 3 0
Neos Sight -0.00 2 3 0
Throne Sentinel -0.00 2 3 0
Guandu, Theater of War -0.00 2 3 0
Reciprocity, Dorumegia's Call -0.00 2 3 0
Hector, Praetorian Guard -0.00 2 3 0
Dire Requiem +0.00 7 6 0
Favorable Winds -0.00 1 2 0
Kongming, Wayward Maven -0.00 3 4 0
Harmonious Mantra -0.00 3 4 0
Reprogram -0.00 2 3 0
Scry the Skies +0.00 5 4 0
Fatestone of Unrelenting +0.00 1 0 0
Lavaplume Fatestone +0.00 1 0 0
Blanche, Sheltering Saint +0.00 78 78 39
Fleeting Guard +0.00 2 2 0
Blinding Orb +0.00 15 15 0
Juggle Knives +0.00 28 28 1
Zephyr's Edge +0.00 2 2 0
Honorable Vanguard +0.00 1 1 0
Huaji of Heaven's Rise +0.00 1 1 0
Seize Fate +0.00 1 1 0
Zhao Yun, Dragonsblood +0.00 1 1 0
Lawsur, the Carpenter +0.00 1 1 0
Sun Ce, Weaponsmaster +0.00 1 1 0
Gloamspire Lance +0.00 3 3 0
Tome of Sorcery +0.00 6 6 0
Potion of Healing +0.00 7 7 0
Rococo, Explosive Maven +0.00 2 2 0
Beastbond Boots +0.00 2 2 0

JSON: /api/events/32243/archetypes/Fire Rile